1) Phil's Financial Tip of the Day:
Automation, Other Distribution-Center Efficiencies Mean More Websites Guarantee Christmas Delivery at Later Dates.
This article is unbelievable how technology has made it possible to still get presents via mail this late in the game of Christmas shopping. I took advantage of it today!
Pushing Envelope on Last-Minute Shipping-From The Wall Street Journal
Procrastinators rejoice. Last-minute shopping just got easier.
A number of retailers including Children's Place Retail Stores Inc., Charming Shoppes Inc.'s Lane Bryant and Kohl's Corp., are guaranteeing Christmas delivery for online orders placed later than they did last year, thanks to new distribution centers, robotic technology and other changes they've made over the last year to speed up delivery times.
Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204058404577108863675716908.html#ixzz1hIDiN9oR
2) In the Markets today:
Stocks headed into the last day of trading before Christmas in good cheer, notching a third straight advance on a batch of better-than-expected economic readings.
Rally brings S&P closer to break-even for 2011-From Reuters
Stocks rose on Thursday, putting the S&P 500 on the cusp of finishing out the year higher as another decline in jobless claims pointed to further improvement in the labor market.
The S&P rose for a third day in seasonally light volume that has contributed to sharp swings recently.
With the benchmark index near break-even year-to-date and the Dow already higher for 2011, U.S. stocks appeared on track to outperform such major overseas markets as China, Brazil and Europe, all of which are down more than 10 percent year-to-date.
The latest bit of optimism on Wall Street came from a drop in weekly claims for jobless benefits to a 3-1/2-year low. Also helping equities, U.S. consumer sentiment improved in December, hitting its highest level in six months as Americans felt better about the economy's prospects.
"This is supportive of the fact that the economy is gaining momentum and that the fourth quarter will be much better than people were expecting even just a month ago," said Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Chicago-based Northern Trust Global Investments.
Cyclicals, which have come under pressure recent from uncertainties over global growth, were the day's top gainers, with financials (:.GSPF) gaining 2.1 percent, followed by energy (SNP:^GSPE - News) up 1.1 percent and materials (:.GSPM), up 0.9 percent.
Consumer staples (:.GSPS), considered a defensive play, was the weakest sector, falling 0.2 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) was up 61.84 points, or 0.51 percent, at 12,169.58. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SNP:^GSPC - News) was up 10.29 points, or 0.83 percent, at 1,254.01. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) was up 21.48 points, or 0.83 percent, at 2,599.45.
The CBOE Volatility index (Chicago Options:^VIX - News), a gauge of investor fear, fell 1.4 percent and is down about 13 percent so far this week, putting it on track for four weeks of declines.
Recent gains have lifted the S&P 500 above its 50-day moving average, though the index has run into trouble when it sought to move above its 200-day moving average, currently around 1,260. The levels have been key for the market this year.
Lower volume ahead of the Christmas and New Year's Day holidays has left the market susceptible to the heightened volatility this week.
Investors warned that a year-end rally would not necessarily translate into elevated expectations for 2012 because many of the issues that hit the market this year, such as slow growth and Europe's debt crisis, remained unresolved.
"Next year will be a tug of war between better economic data here and the prospects for emerging market growth to pick up on one hand, with the European debt crisis on the other side of the rope," said McDonald, who helps oversee about $650 billion in assets.
A downward revision of the U.S. Commerce Department's figures on third-quarter economic growth had little impact on stocks, with investors focused on the economy's performance in the fourth quarter.
The Commerce Department said the economy grew at a 1.8 percent annual pace in the third quarter, down from its prior estimate of 2 percent.
Micron Technology Inc (NasdaqGS:MU - News) jumped 15.7 percent to $6.41 as investors looked past limp quarterly results announced late Wednesday and focused on a potential 2012 rebound in long-stagnant memory chip demand and prices.
Tibco Software Inc (NasdaqGS:TIBX - News) climbed 8 percent to $23.76 after the business software maker forecast first-quarter revenue above estimates and said fourth-quarter profit and revenues soared.
American Greetings Corp (NYSE:AM - News) slumped 21.1 percent to $13.39 after third-quarter profit dropped nearly 40 percent and warned 2012 cash flow would be hurt by higher expenses.
Almost three-fourths of stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange closed higher while 63 percent of Nasdaq-listed shares ended in positive territory.
Volume was light, with about 5.88 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, below last year's daily average of 8.47 billion.
3) Top financial story of the day:
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits hit a 3-1/2 year low last week, bolstering views the economy was gaining momentum, even though third-quarter growth was revised down.
Jobless claims at 3.5 year low-From Reuters
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits hit a 3-1/2 year low last week, bolstering views the economy was gaining momentum, even though third-quarter growth was revised down.
Other data on Thursday underscored the firming tone in the economy, with consumer sentiment scaling a six-month high in December and a barometer of future activity rising more than expected last month.
While the economy is wrapping up 2011 with a spring in its step, bickering over budget policy in Washington and the debt crisis in Europe are casting a cloud over its prospects next year.
A payroll tax cut and benefits for the long-term unemployed, both of which are due to expire at year end, has become tangled in partisan politics and it is unclear whether and when they will be renewed.
"The economy is carrying some clear momentum into 2012," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. "If Congress doesn't kill that by failing to extend the tax breaks, we can look forward to a better year ahead."
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 364,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the lowest level since April 2008.
The claims data, which covered the survey period for the December nonfarm payrolls report, helped to take the sting out of a separate report from the Commerce Department showing that gross domestic product grew at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter. The December employment report will be released January 6.
Growth, which had previously been reported to have expanded at a 2 percent pace, was held back by a sharp drop in healthcare spending.
However, spending on durable goods was stronger than previously estimated, indicating household appetite to consume remains healthy.
Healthcare spending subtracted about 0.1 percentage point from the GDP change in the final revision, whereas the previous estimate had it adding 0.61 percentage point to growth.
Prospects for consumers have been boosted by the rise in sentiment this month. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment rose to 69.9 from 64.1 in November.
LABOR MARKET IMPROVING
Stocks on Wall Street rose on the data, along with prices for long-dated U.S. Treasury debt. The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies.
Even as much of the rest of the world is slowing down and a mild recession is forecast in Europe next year, the U.S. economy remains resilient.
The labor market is improving, households continue to spend, home building is picking up and factory output is expanding, putting the economy on course for at least a 3 percent growth pace in the fourth quarter.
That would be the fastest pace in 18 months.
While claims for unemployment benefits tend to be volatile this time of the year, the third straight week of decline suggested the labor market was gaining some traction.
In addition, the four-week moving average, considered a better measure of labor market trends, dropped to its lowest level since June 2008.
"One unexpectedly low number can easily be a fluke; two are interesting; three are telling us something real is happening in the labor market," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.
"The drop in claims in recent weeks, if sustained, is consistent with private payrolls growth ramping up to about 200,000 per month."
Other data showed the Conference Board's leading economic index rose 0.5 percent in November after gaining 0.9 percent in October. It was the seventh straight monthly gain in the index.
Despite the downward revision, last quarter's growth is still a step-up from the April-June period's 1.3 percent pace. Part of the pick-up in output during the last quarter reflects a reversal of factors that held back growth earlier in the year.
A jump in gasoline prices had weighed on consumer spending earlier in the year, and supply disruptions from Japan's big earthquake and tsunami in March had curbed auto production.
INVENTORIES FALL
Business inventories dropped $2.0 billion, which sliced off 1.35 percentage points from GDP growth. Inventories had previously been estimated to have declined $8.5 billion.
The drag from inventories was offset by strong business spending, which increased at a 15.7 percent rate, instead of 14.8 percent.
Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a still brisk 3.2 percent rate, revised down from a 3.6 percent pace. Final sales increased at a 1.6 percent pace in the second quarter.
Export growth was stronger than previously estimated, rising at a 4.7 percent rate instead of 4.3 percent. Imports increased at a much faster 1.2 percent rate rather than 0.5 percent.
The GDP report also showed some inflation pressures in the economy. A price index for personal spending rose at an unrevised 2.3 percent rate in the third quarter.
That compared to a 3.3 percent rate in the second quarter. A core inflation measure, which strips out food and energy costs, rose at a 2.1 percent rate rather than 2.0 percent. The measure -- closely
watched by the Federal Reserve -- grew at a 2.3 percent rate in the prior three months.
4) Mackay's Moral:
It's never too late to be "Most likely to succeed."
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